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Are Bilateral Trade Statistics Unreliable?
September 30th, 2009
Illicit financial flows exit developing countries through two broad channels—as unrecorded capital flows from a country’s external accounts (captured by the World Bank Residual model) and trade mispricing (captured by the Direction of Trade statistics or DOTS model). GFI’s study Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries: 2002-2006 points out that some researchers have questioned the use of the trade mispricing model to capture illicit flows. They argue that data issues underlying the recording of partner country exports and imports introduce enough “noise” so that the trade mispricing model is unable to capture illicit flows. I was therefore...
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A week in DC
September 18th, 2009
My week in DC is not yet over: I have some meetings still to do, but my on-line week nearly is. I admit it’s too early to appraise all that has happened. But I’ll offer first thoughts. First highlight: World Bank MD Ngozi Ikonjo-Iweala calling for mass civil society action against illicit financial flows. Has the Bank got the issue? I think so. Second, constructive dialogue with the Oxford team. I hope we can build on it. Third, clear rejection of the view put forward by some economists that data prevents analysis of this issue or that there is even...
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