Financial Transparency Coalition

Looking at 2012, experts from the Brookings Africa Growth Initiative (AGI) and colleagues from think tanks based in the region have come together to produce this year’s issue of Foresight Africa, where they outline the top priorities for the continent for 2012 and beyond. AGI scholars assess what they see as the major challenges for Africa in the coming year and provide policy recommendations on how to manage these challenges and leverage opportunities to catalyze and reignite growth in 2012. Similarly, AGI and its partner think tanks identify country-specific challenges in Nigeria, South Africa, Senegal and Kenya.

In a study conducted between November 2010 and February 2011 on ill-gotten money and the economy, the Financial Integrity team looked at the experiences of Malawi and Namibia. We approached the project with an open mind and without any assumptions, finding that for Malawi, corruption and tax evasion as a percentage of GDP represent a significant drag on economic development.

OECD countries acknowledge that taxes must play a role in the process of fiscal consolidation as they battle unprecedented budget deficits. New OECD data in the annual Revenue Statistics publication show that the majority of OECD governments have stabilised their tax to GDP, with the average ratio moving up slightly from 33.8% in 2009 to 33.9% (1) in 2010. That’s still down from 34.6% in 2008 and well below the most recent high point of 2007 when tax to GDP ratios averaged 35.2%.

In this report, we first estimate the absolute size of a country's shadow economy based on its own published estimate of its GDP and recently-reported data on the size of shadow economies published by the world bank. This, and other data we use, is what we think the best currently available for the purpose of this report and, as such, should provide the best estimates possible. By the definition used here, economic activity in the shadow economy of a country will be tax-evading. So we next calculate an estimate of the amount of tax lost as a result of the...